Small Business Outlook: Optimism Continues Despite Rising Costs

Inflation, uncertainty, and finding qualified workers are front and center on small employers’ radar.  Main Street’s resiliency is reflected in optimism and plans for growth.

As the government shutdown continues, the U.S. Chamber is highlighting the small business impact, ranging from the potential of delayed payments to lost sales and declining morale.

For small business importers, tariffs are having a real and devastating impact as uncertainty, rising costs, and cancellations are hitting home. To help thousands of small businesses navigate the challenges, the U.S. Chamber has been answering questions, holding briefings, sharing resources, and lobbying on their behalf.

Learn more:​ U.S. Chamber to Administration: Small Businesses Need Immediate Relief from Tariffs

Q3 Small Business Index: The Q3 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is here. This quarter, the Index is 72.0, up from last quarter’s score of 65.2.

New Small Business Data

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey (October 27, 2025)

Summary: Inflation continues to hold back small employers, and continued optimism reflects the resiliency of Main Street business owners.

• 78% of small business owners are optimistic about the current trajectory of their business and 74% plan on growing their business this year.
• 41% of small business owners plan on adding jobs this year, 39% plan on maintaining current staffing levels, and 12% plan on cutting jobs.
• 54% of small business owners want government to focus on inflation, 40% want more policy certainty, 40% want help offering benefits, and 35% want government to focus on access to capital.
• Finding and keeping good employees, inflation, and tariffs all ranked highest (17%) as the top challenge facing small employers, followed by affordability of benefits (15%), customer demand (10%), and red tape (4%). 
• 72% of small business owners believe inflation has increased in the past 3-months and 65% believe that owning and operating a business is beyond the reach of average Americans.
• 72% of small business owners are using Artificial Intelligence (AI), with an additional 7% planning on adopting AI within the next year. 
• 94% of AI users say that the technology has a positive impact on their small business.

WSJ / Vistage Small Business October Small Business CEO Survey (October 23, 2025)

Summary: Expected revenues and profits dropped in October, reversing September’s surge of Main Street employers’ optimism.

• 22% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (1 point higher than September) and 43% say the economy has gotten worse (no change).
• 30% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (1 point lower than September) and 35% believe the economy will worsen (3 points worse than September).
• 48% of small businesses plan on increasing employees this year (3 points lower than September) and 10% plan on decreasing employees (no change).
• 32% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (1 point lower than September).
• 58% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (2 points lower than September) and 15% believe revenues will decrease (4 points worse than September).
• 44% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (4 points worse than September) and 23% believe that profitability will decrease (4 points worse than September).
• 51% of small businesses reported that tariffs are decreasing their profitability (6 points higher than September) and 5% believe they are benefitting from tariffs (1 point higher).
• 85% of small business owners believe that the elimination of de minimis tariff exemption has no impact on their business.

2025 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q3 Cash Flow Trend Report (October 22, 2025)

Summary: Confidence on Main Street remains elevated along with inflation anxiety.

• 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (1 point higher than last quarter) and 31% anticipate significant growth (5 points higher than last quarter).
• Inflation is still the highest concern for small business owners across all 7 industry categories. 
• 65% of small business owners are unsure how tariffs are impacting their business finances (8 points higher than last quarter).  
• 52% of small business owners have incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their operations.

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CNBC | SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index Q4 2025 (October 16, 2025)

Summary: Small business confidence slipped after Q3’s skyrocketing numbers and anxiety over rising prices continues.  

• 38% of small business owners say that the economy is “excellent” or “good” (8 points lower than last quarter).
• 71% of small business owners expect the price of goods to rise (5 points higher than last quarter) and 28% believe inflation has peaked (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 49% of small business owners expect revenues to increase over the next 12-months (2 points lower than last quarter) and 26% expect to increase employment (2 points lower).
• 45% of small business owners are negatively impacted by tariffs (5 points higher than small business owners who expected trade policy to have a negative impact on their businesses when asked last quarter).
• 48% of small business owners support the Trump Administration’s tariff policies and 51% oppose them.
• 41% of small business owners believe government regulations will negatively impact their businesses in the next 12-months (6 points higher than last quarter).
• Inflation ranks as the highest risk for small business owners (24%) followed by consumer demand (17%).

NFIB September Small Business Optimism Index (October 14, 2025)

Insight Summary: Sales expectations and economic outlook dip, pushing the index down. Main Street employers are still planning on adding employees and high level of uncertainty threatens growth. 

• 23% of small business owners expect the economy to improve (11 points lower than August).
• 11% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (3 points lower than August).
• -7% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (2 points better than August) and 8% of small business owners expect higher sales in the next 3-months (4 points lower than August).
• 18% of small businesses reported labor quality as their top concern in August (tied with taxes).  14% listed inflation as their top concern. 
• 32% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (no change from August) and 88% of those trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants (7 points higher than August).
• 58% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in September (5 points higher than August) and 16% of small businesses plan on hiring in the next 3-months (1 point higher than August).
• 31% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (2 points higher than August) and 19% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (1 point lower than August).
• 24% of small businesses raised their prices (3 points higher than August) and 31% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (5 points higher than August). Note: despite the month-to-month decrease, price increases remain well above average of net 13%.
• 56% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (no change from August) and 21% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (no change from August).
• -7% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (3 points worse than August).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 8.8% (up 0.7 points from August) and 26% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis  (3 points higher than August).

Fiserv September Small Business Index (October 2, 2025)

Summary: Consumer spending remained steady with an increased focus on bargains. 

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in September held steady (+0.1% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 2.33.9% compared to September 2024.

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MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q3 (September 24, 2025)

Summary: Small business owners’ confidence hits all-time high, driven primarily by rising sales expectations and comfort with cash flow.

• 72% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (4 points higher than last quarter) and 76% are comfortable with their current cash flow (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 46% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (5 points higher than last quarter) and 24% are negative.
• 40% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (6 points higher than last quarter) and 42% are negative (3 points better than last quarter). 
• 46% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (2 points lower than last quarter and the 15^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 70% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (5 points higher than last quarter).
• 28% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (no change from last quarter) and 44% expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points higher than last quarter).
• Rising costs of goods and services and rising costs of materials are the top two barriers for growth according to a combined 64% of small business owners.

Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Insights (September 2, 2025)

Summary: Small businesses expect higher sales revenue and are nervous about profitability because of rising costs.

• 41% of small businesses reported business growth (9 points higher than last quarter) and 78% of small business owners said they want to grow their business.
• 48% of small businesses reported increased sales revenue in the past 3-months (1 point higher than last quarter) and 60% predict higher sales revenue in the next 3-months (no change from last quarter).
• 84% of small businesses reported profitability (1 point lower than last quarter).
• 46% of small business owners cited inflation as their greatest challenge (4 points lower than last quarter, but still the greatest challenge for over 2-years).
• 51% of small business owners expect higher operating costs over the next 3-months (4 points lower than last quarter) and wages are the main reason for higher costs.
• 40% of small businesses are planning on adding staff over the next 3-months (trending downward for 2-years).
• 70% of small business owners use Artificial Intelligence (AI) regularly (daily use has doubled in the past year) and 52% of those not using AI are considering adopting it.

Looking for More Small Business Insights?

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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